Now May Be a Good Time to Invest in Global Commercial Real Estate
Utilizing decades of commercial real estate experience, TD Asset Management Inc. (TDAM) launched a global real estate solution in 2019 – the TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund L.P. (the "Fund"). In the little over five years the Fund has been in existence, the market has observed forced real estate shutdowns and the work-from-home phenomenon due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as unprecedented pressure on interest rates and real estate valuations.
Despite launching only a handful of months before the pandemic, the Fund has delivered positive performance since its inception on August 19, 2019, and it has outperformed broader, diversified global real estate indexes.1 The Fund delivered a one-year return of 1.2%, a three-year return of 1.9%, and a five-year return of 4.%, as of September 30, 2024.2 Meanwhile valuations have adjusted considerably, which is potentially increasing the attractiveness of new global real estate allocations for investors.
Figure 1: Delivering Attractive Relative Returns with Lower Standard Deviation
Note: Fund = TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund LP. Returns in U.S. dollars. As of September 30, 2024 due to index publishing lags.
The GREFI (Global Real Estate Funds Index – All Funds) measures net asset value performance of non-listed real estate funds on a quarterly basis. The index was launched in 2014 and is published 12 weeks after quarter-end. The index release for the quarter ending on September 30, 2024 includes 436 funds and represents a total gross asset value (GAV) of USD $891.93 billion as of Q3 2024. The Global Open-End Diversified Core Equity (ODCE) is a subset of the GREFI index, including only non-listed, diversified core real estate funds, and included 49 funds and a total GAV of USD $350.3 billion as of Q3 2023.
Source: TDAM, Global ODCE Fund Consultation Index, Global Real Estate Fund Index - All Funds. As of September 30, 2024.
Open-ended Solution with Both Direct and Indirect Investments
The Fund offers an open-ended, turn-key global real estate solution with a strategic mix of direct and indirect investments. With investments in more than 150 cities around the world, the Fund provides broad diversification by region, property types and risk strategy. The Fund curated indirect fund investments to provide immediate diversification to investors at inception, but as it has grown, the Fund has increasingly taken a targeted approach for direct deals. Today, direct deals represent over 23% of the overall Fund and are forecasted to reach 43% by the end of 2025.
Figure 2: Continued Growth Through Targeted Direct Investments
Source: TDAM. As of December 31, 2024.
Diversification
The ability to execute directly while providing an operational and tax-efficient solution3 across multiple jurisdictions worldwide can be attributed to over 35 years of experience managing real estate portfolios. TDAM's real estate investment process aims to deliver predictable and growing income while reducing the risk of an investor's overall portfolio. The discipline behind our philosophy is perhaps most evident in the reduction of risk through strategic diversification of the Fund compared to broadly diversified global real estate benchmarks.
For instance, given Asia-Pacific's low GDP correlation relative to other regions and its long-term growth drivers, the Fund has an overweight to the region through sector-focused strategies such as Australian Industrial. And although the Fund is underweight office as an overall sector, we have tilted the office composition to the Asia-Pacific region. This has been beneficial, as the work-from-home phenomenon has been less prominent in the Asia-Pacific region compared to other regions.
The Fund is also overweight life sciences and student housing due to their lower correlation with other more cyclical property types, shown as "other" in Figure 3.
The goal of reducing cyclicality, and by way of this, volatility, is further pronounced by a strategic underweight to the heavily cyclical office sector in the U.S. The objective of stable returns is further emphasized by large allocations to multi-unit residential and industrial properties, which tend to be less cyclical than office and retail overall.
Figure 3: TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund L.P. Relative to GREFI
|
TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund L.P. |
Global Real Estate Funds Index – All Funds (GREFI) |
Industrial |
37.7% |
32.7% |
United States |
8.4% |
18.5% |
Europe |
15.2% |
9.4% |
Asia Pacific |
14.1% |
4.8% |
Office |
12.8% |
21.8% |
United States |
2.4% |
7.5% |
Europe |
2.5% |
7.8% |
Asia Pacific |
7.9% |
6.5% |
Retail |
8.8% |
11.6% |
United States |
3.2% |
3.9% |
Europe |
3.2% |
4.7% |
Asia Pacific |
2.5% |
2.9% |
Multi-Unit Residential |
25.9% |
22.3% |
United States |
8.0% |
13.5% |
Europe |
15.4% |
8.1% |
Asia Pacific |
2.6% |
0.6% |
Other |
14.7% |
11.7% |
United States |
10.1% |
4.8% |
Europe |
4.3% |
5.9% |
Asia Pacific |
0.3% |
1.0% |
Property Type Total |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
|
|
United States Total |
32.1% |
48.2% |
Europe Total |
40.6% |
35.9% |
Asia Pacific Total |
27.3% |
15.9% |
Source: TDAM, GREFI based on market value of underlying funds. As of September 30, 2024.
Targeted Approach to Direct Investments
The Fund's sizable allocations to multi-unit residential and industrial properties, particularly in Europe, also highlight the targeted approach to direct investments. Bolstered by over 35 years of direct transaction experience, the Fund has recently taken advantage of price-to-value dislocations in Europe and this region has begun to outperform since.
During Q4 2023, the Fund made a direct investment in a portfolio of 30 multi-unit residential properties in Finland. The portfolio is comprised of over 1,200 multi-unit residential units, with two-thirds of the portfolio located in Finland's largest cities: Helsinki, Turku and Tampere.
In Q1 2024, the Fund made a direct investment in a portfolio of two purpose-built rental multi-unit residential assets located in London, U.K. The portfolio is comprised of 490 units, situated in the Wembley Park Estate in North London, with excellent transit connectivity to Central London. The Portfolio is expected to benefit from London's strong rental market, which continues to see a severe lack of institutionally owned and managed multi-unit residential assets.
In Q3 2024, the Fund made a direct investment in nine urban logistic assets in the U.K. The U.K. industrial properties are in dense nodes, making them desirable last-mile locations. The investment aims to provide visibility to income growth with a gap-to-market rent of 39%, contributing to a 16% targeted return on investment.
Svanströminkuja 9 | Helsinki
Beton | London
Houston Business Park | Livingston
Strategic diversification to regions and sectors with more predictable income growth, augmented by direct acquisition capabilities, have the potential to deliver resilient and attractive returns. By focusing on strategic diversification first, and increasingly delivering targeted direct acquisitions, the Fund has constructed a solution that has proven this, as shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Total Return Index for Fund and Global Peers
Note: Fund refers to the TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund L.P.
Source: TDAM, GLOBAL ODCE Fund Consultation Index. As of September 30, 2024 due to index publishing lags.
The last five years have presented a plethora of headwinds for commercial real estate performance. Considering the magnitude of the real estate valuation adjustment witnessed across the globe, 2025 is arguably shaping up to be a good year for gaining exposure to global private commercial real estate. Building on over 35 years of real estate experience, we believe the TD Greystone Global Real Estate Fund L.P. is an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their return streams into the global real estate asset class.
1Relative returns are in U.S. dollars as of September 30, 2024.
2Fund returns are in U.S. dollars as of September 30, 2024 due to index publishing lags.For Canadian institutional investment professionals only. Not for further distribution.
3Tax implications may differ based on the investor.
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