Canada
@TDAM_Canada
Investor Knowledge + 5 Minutes = Current Insights
It's no secret that Canadians prefer domestic investments, and who can blame them. Canada has been a great place to grow financial wealth over time. Whether it’s a historically strong banking industry, high quality energy stocks or the AAA rating of Canadian Government debt, Canadian investors have historically been well-compensated for taking risk. While the U.S. equity market has generated strong returns, the gains in the great white north compare quite favourably to many developed markets over the long run.
Recently, the Bank of Canada ("BoC") has cut rates as inflation has subsided and the economy is showing signs of slowing. These cuts are supportive of consumers and businesses, which should allow for credit to stabilize at Canadian Banks. Additionally, the Energy sector has strong balance sheets and is returning its significant free cash flow to shareholders and the high dividend yielding stocks can benefit from the declining interest rate environment.
To shed some light on the Canadian equity opportunity present today, we recently had an opportunity to chat with Jennifer Nowski, Vice President & Director, Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Management Inc. (TDAM).
The details on Jennifer
Jennifer joined TDAM in 2006 and made an immediate impact. In her current role, Jennifer is a member of the Active Equity Team and Lead Manager of the TD Dividend Growth Fund, TD Private Investment Counsel (PIC) Canadian Dividend Model and TD Canadian Blue Chip Dividend Fund. She is also Co-Manager of the TD Monthly Income Fund, TD Dividend Income Fund, TD Canadian Diversified Yield Fund and PIC North American Blue Chip Model. In addition to her investment management mandates, Jennifer is a member of the TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee (WAAC), holds a B.Comm. from Queen’s University and an MBA from Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University.
You managed the TD Resource Fund for many years and Energy is an important sector in Canada. How has the oil & gas industry changed since your time managing the fund?
The oil & gas industry has changed significantly over the past few years. Historically, there was a drive to spend aggressively to grow production, lean on the balance sheet at times, and there was little free cash flow to show for it. Now, oil & gas companies have spent the past few years cutting costs, limiting capital expenditures, and lowering debt levels. Today, large cap oil & gas producers are generally pursuing a disciplined strategy of low production growth, which is leading to high free cash flow generation. Furthermore, most of this free cash flow is being returned to shareholders via growing dividends and buybacks. While stock prices will still be influenced by oil price movements, the financial position of these companies is stronger than in the past and the capital allocation is more shareholder friendly.
In the current investing environment, what keeps you up at night and what gives you enthusiasm?
Our team focuses a lot on earnings as that is what historically has driven the market higher over the long run. In the U.S, earnings growth shifted back into positive territory in 2024, which along with multiple expansion, resulted in the strong U.S market returns. This earnings growth is expected to continue in 2025, which is supportive of the markets. 2024 is shaping up to be a good year for Canadian equities as the outlook for the S&P/TSX Composite Index is looking positive in 2025 as earnings growth is expected to accelerate.
What keeps me up at night is the potential for government policy changes or uncertainty under the new U.S. administration. Some changes could potentially be helpful for corporations, but others could be headwinds, or might not turn out the way the market is expecting. There might also be market volatility as investors debate the ultimate magnitude and pace of rate cuts versus economic performance.
AI & data centers have been a big theme this year in the U.S market. Any impact north of the border?
Canadian companies tend to discuss AI experiments or initiatives to improve efficiency or service, with some IT firms starting to incorporate AI into their products. Pipelines and utilities have operations across North America and could benefit from the growing demand for power that AI could create, in addition to the power needs driven by near-shoring and electrification. Growing power demand could be met from many sources, which create opportunities for renewables, utilities rate base growth, natural gas transportation, storage, and generation. While directionally positive, it's still early days and the growth might be more marginal or take longer than investors expect.
What is the one event when you look back over your career that pops out as being one of the most important to date?
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. It happened early in my career and left a big impression. It was a massively complex situation that created a lot of market volatility and uncertainty at the time. While there were a lot of lessons learned from the GFC, you must keep in mind that the source of the next problem will likely be different and something that no one is thinking about.
When not focusing on money management, how do you enjoy spending your free time?
I have two kids, 8-year-old twins, who keep me busy. They are playing hockey this year, which they are having fun with and is rather entertaining to watch. I also enjoy jogging, skiing, and golfing.
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