TD Alternative Commodities Pool

Understanding top holdings, exposure, and multiple return sources 

Published: February  28, 2025


Investor Knowledge +  10 Minutes = New Thinking

Hussein Allidina, Managing Director and Head of Commodities, TD Asset Management Inc.

Humza Hussain, Vice President and Director, Commodities, TD Asset Management Inc.

Tim Yang, Vice President, Commodities, TD Asset Management Inc.

 

At TD Asset Management Inc. (TDAM), we believe commodities play an important role in portfolio construction, with the potential to offer inflation protection, portfolio diversification and positive returns over time. In previous articles we discussed the benefits of commodity derivatives over commodity related equities as well as anticipating a new commodities super-cycle. Building on this, we put together this article that helps clarify an often-misunderstood aspect of the TD Alternative Commodities Pool ("the Pool") and to illustrate the return boosting opportunities available when investing in futures contracts.

Looks can be deceiving
When reading through the investment profile of the TD Alternative Commodities Pool, at first glance it appears as though the bulk of the assets (often 80% or more) are invested in cash or cash equivalents. While this is true, investors shouldn't look at that allocation in isolation, because it doesn’t quite represent the true exposure of the Pool. The Pool obtains exposure in commodities using futures contracts. When purchasing

futures contracts, investors don’t need to allocate 100% of the funds to purchase the contract – only a portion of it (like a down payment when purchasing a house). The down payment required (margin) for futures contracts is often only between 10% - 12% of the contract purchase price. Therefore, full exposure to the desired commodity may be obtained with only having to provide a fraction of the contract's notional value (roughly 10%).  The excess funds that would have been allocated to that investment can be deployed elsewhere, i.e. in interest bearing cash equivalents, potentially boosting the total return of the investment.

For simplicity
Let's assume an investor purchases a futures contract to obtain $100 in exposure to a commodity (notional value). The required margin of that futures contract (downpayment) is only 10%. The investor would allocate $10 for the contract and the other $90 dollars of "excess cash" can be allocated elsewhere (primarily cash equivalents) and used to potentially boost returns. 

Return boosting opportunities
Returns from investing in commodity futures usually come from three main sources:  Spot price, roll and collateral returns.

  • Spot price returns are simply the price gain or loss on the derivative purchased.
  • Roll returns are profits or losses generated when investing in the futures market due to the price difference between futures contracts with different expiration dates. Roll yields can be positive or negative, depending upon whether the market is in backwardation or contango. A curve in backwardation (closer maturity dates are more expensive than maturity dates further out) results in positive roll yield. A curve in contango (closer maturity dates are cheaper than longer maturity dates) results in negative roll yield.
  • Collateral returns are earned on the excess cash not invested due to the lower margin requirements for futures contracts (explained above). This significant amount of available capital can be invested in liquid investments such as cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury Bills (T Bills) to help boost the overall return. 
  • Examples of spot, roll and collateral returns To help illustrate the driver of total return, we go through three hypothetical examples that show spot, roll and collateral returns. For simplicity, we ignore marking-to-market and maintenance margin (including the potential for a margin call).

Spot and collateral return example:
Let's suppose an investor purchased a December 2024 crude futures contract for $70 on January 2, 2024, and sold it on June 28, 2024, for $78. During the holding period, the investor would need to deposit roughly $7 of the $70 investment (10%) in margin. This leaves an additional $63 to earn a yield during the holding period. The investor purchases $63 worth of 3-month T Bills @ 5.3%. Over the 6-month holding period and eventual sale of the contract, the investor experienced a gain of $8 on the contract and an additional $1.67 income return on the invested collateral. Due to the collateral yield from the T Bills, the total return was boosted from 11.4% (spot return only) to 13.8% (spot and collateral return).

Crude Future (Spot)

Margin

Cash (Collateral)

January 2, 2024

Bought December 2024 contract @ $70

Deposited $7

Bought $63 of 3 month T-Bills @ 5.3%

June 28, 2024

Sold December 2024 contract @ $78

Withdrew $7

Sold T-Bills

Profit (loss)

$8.00

$0

$1.67

Total profit (loss)

Total

$9.67

Spot and collateral return (loss)

11.4% spot return only

13.81% spot and collateral return

Spot, roll and collateral return example:
The second example adds a third return component – the roll return. To maintain exposure to a commodity an investor needs to "roll" the future before it expires.

Let's suppose an investor purchased a June 2024 crude oil futures contract for $72 on January 2, 2024, and sold it on September 3, 2024, for $70 (a loss of $2).  During the holding period on May 15, 2024, the

Rolling a futures contract
Investors will often roll over futures contracts that are about to expire to a longer-dated contract to maintain the same position following expiry. This involves selling the contract already held to buy a similar contract with longer time before maturity.

investor "rolled" this exposure by selling a June 2024 contract for $78 and buying a December 2024 contract for $75.50 resulting in a roll return of $2.50. Once again, during the holding period, the investor would only need to deposit $7 of the $72 investment (10%) in margin. This leaves the additional $63 to earn a collateral yield during the holding period. Again, the investor purchased $63 worth of 3-month T Bills @ 5.3% and held them until September 3, 2024, for an additional income of $2.38.

In this example, despite ultimately losing $2 on the spot return ($70 - $72), the investor still managed to generate a 4% return based on the roll and collateral return contributions.

Rolling a futures contract
Investors will often roll over futures contracts that are about to expire to a longer-dated contract to maintain the same position following expiry. This involves selling the contract already held to buy a similar contract with longer time before maturity.

Crude Future (Spot)

Margin

Cash (Collateral)

January 2, 2024

Bought June 2024 contract @ $72

Deposited $7

Bought $63 of 3 month T-Bills @ 5.3%

May 15, 2024

Sold June 2024 contract @ $78

May 15, 2024

Bought December 2024 contract @ $75.50

September 3, 2024

Sold December 2024 contract @ $70

Withdrew $7

Sold T-Bills

Profit (loss)

$0.50

$0

$2.38

Total profit (loss)

$2.88

Spot, roll and collateral return (loss)

-2.78% spot price loss only

4.00% Spot, roll and collateral return

Spot, roll and collateral loss example:
This third example illustrates how a loss can be incurred when rolling the derivative.

Let's suppose an investor purchased a natural gas futures contract for $2.64 on September 16, 2024, and sold it on November 14, 2024, for $2.79 (a spot profit of $0.15).  During the holding period on October 8, 2024, the investor "rolled" the contract by selling the November 2024 contract for $2.73 and buying a December 2024 contract for $3.20 which resulted in a roll loss of $0.47. Once again, during the holding period, the investor would only need to deposit $0.26 of the $2.64 investment (10%) in margin. This leaves the additional $2.38 to earn a yield during the holding period. Again, the investor purchased $2.38 worth of 3-month T Bills @ 5.3% and held them till November 14, 2024, for an additional income of $0.02.

In this example, although the price of natural gas increased, earning 5.7% on the spot return, the negative roll yield resulted in an overall loss of 11%.

Natural Gas Future (Spot)

Margin

Cash (Collateral)

September 16, 2024

Bought November 2024 contract @ $2.64

Deposited $0.26

Bought $2.38 of 3 month T-Bills @ 5.2%

October 8, 2024

Sold November 2024 contract @ $2.73

October 8, 2024

Bought December 2024 contract @ $3.20

November 14, 2024

Sold December 2024 contract @ $2.79

Withdrew $0.26

Sold T-Bills

Profit (loss)

$-0.32

$0.02

Total profit (loss)

-$0.30

Spot, roll and collateral return (loss)

5.7% spot return only

-11.00% Spot, roll and collateral return (loss)

TD Alternative Commodities Pool
Our research shows that investing in commodity derivatives can provide better diversification and inflation protection than commodity equities. The derivatives also provide an opportunity for a boost in returns from spot price gains, rolling the contact and collateral investment.

The TD Alternative Commodities Pool helps investors gain exposure to the movements in the price of commodities based on TDAM's view of a commodity super-cycle and invests in commodity derivatives which is our preferred way to gain exposure to commodities. These derivatives can be one, or a combination of, but not limited to, swap agreements, futures, options, and commodity index-linked notes. The Pool will also use a combination of conventional and alternative investment strategies, including the use of leverage, created through exposure to derivates, short-selling, and/or the use of borrowing.

The information contained herein has been provided by TD Asset Management Inc. and is for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance.

Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS.

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