TDAM Unveils 2024 Long-Term Asset Class Assumptions

• Expected returns for each asset class
  TDAM uses a forward-looking building block approach to set asset class return assumptions. This methodology builds on the Grinold and Kroner forecasting approach. The return assumptions encapsulate four financial and economic parameters: expected real Gross Domestic Product growth, expected inflation, yield and an idiosyncratic component, which is asset-specific. Different asset classes incorporate different financial and economic parameters into their return expectations.

• Expected risk - setting standard deviation of asset class returns
  The TDAM approach uses historical returns dating back to December 31, 1998 for each asset class to set expected standard deviations. For most asset classes, prevailing benchmarks are sourced. Volatility metrics for illiquid assets can be artificially low due to the smoothing effect of appraisal-based returns coupled with infrequent trading. This can underestimate the level of asset class risk if not accounted for. To de-smooth the return time series for illiquid assets, the Fisher-Geltner-Webb methodology is applied.

• Expected correlation across asset class returns
  Correlation for public assets is calculated from historical returns of respective market indices for each asset class from December 31, 1998 to September 30, 2023. In order to capture different market regimes, correlation with commodities is derived from series going back further, depending on the data availability. Correlations with private assets are derived from series as far back as the firm could source. To correct for appraisal biases within real estate and infrastructure in the correlation matrix, TDAM uses de-smoothed returns to calculate the correlation where alternative assets are involved.

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Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS.

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